Damn The Statistics
One of the most repeated exhortations of the Covid era is this:
We Must Follow The Science.
The concept is clear and sensible: when we base our policy-making upon data; when say, lockdown determinations are grounded with objective evidence, then we reduce the undue influence of pernicious politics.
Such a practice serve two essential purposes:
- Securing the public’s willingness to endure the necessary hardships required to cope with COVID
- Preventing the misallocation of limited resources and attention towards less-productive ends
In that spirit, let’s consider the following – a data-driven Covid comparison of two US states:
(Data as of January 12, 2021)
As we can see, these two states are roughly comparable in population; with State A having a modestly higher percentage of senior citizens.
In terms of coping with COVID, State B has a significant edge in Covid cases with both the rate and total number of cases lower than State A.
When it comes to vaccine distribution, State B is slightly ahead of State A, but by only 3%. (By the way, both states are in the middle of the pack nationwide: Becker reports that some states have completed over 70% complete of their vaccine distribution; while others lag below 20%.)
It is the critical category of Covid deaths that the true distinction emerges: in both rate and total number of deaths, State B is clearly outperformed by State A. State B’s Covid death toll is nearly double State A.
So, following the science, it’s clear that State B has more cause for concern. The Covid practices and policies of State B have not produced superior results when contrasted with State A. It is fair to say that State B’s Covid performance should be subject to at least the same level of scrutiny and objective critique as State A - if not more so given State B’s far higher death toll.
By now you’ve surmised that State A is Florida and State B is New York. And this leads to a wonderful example of how politics trumps science: New York’s Governor Cuomo is a media superstar, adored from network to network, blog to blog. Cuomo was rewarded with an Emmy for his calm manner and effective leadership during the Covid crisis. The governor even published his own book attesting to his superb skills and unparalleled record.
On the other hand, Florida’s Governor DeSantis is a national goat, reviled by the same media that lionizes Governor Cuomo. DeSantis’s slightest missteps are thoroughly promulgated across every mainstream platform.
As a libertarian, I’m delighted to see Governor DeSantis subject to intense journalist focus. After 33 years of federal service, my skepticism about government bureaucracy knows no political limits, no red-state vs blue-state proclivity. I want an aggressive, even hostile media to challenge public officials of all affiliations, at all levels.
Not only has such scrutiny has not been applied to Governor Cuomo, he has become the beneficiary of a hagiography utterly unwarranted by the facts on the ground. And it is for this reason that a certain cynicism creeps into the public sphere, dividing those who are informed by media enamored of Cuomo, versus those who are not. This is a small but notable example of how America’s red/blue divide seems to deepen with each passing year.